The commercial aerospace market is navigating a complex — and ultimately bullish — recovery path. Airline traffic has rebounded strongly from the pandemic trough, manufacturers are ramping production, and aftermarket/MRO activity is re-accelerating as the global fleet ages and expands.

The global commercial aerospace market was estimated by MRFR Analysis to be worth 961.82 USD billion in 2023 and is expected to reach 1,300 USD billion by 2035, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 2.54% from 2025 to 2035. Growing international air travel, technology developments, and the emergence of low-cost airlines are the main factors propelling the market. In order to improve operational efficiency and satisfy changing customer needs, major firms are concentrating on sustainability and digitalization.

Three structural forces are central to this outlook. First, single-aisle aircraft remain the backbone of global capacity expansion. Low-cost carriers and network carriers alike are prioritizing narrow-body fleets to serve growth corridors and point-to-point routes; MRFR highlights the narrow-body segment as a major value contributor over the forecast period. Second, fleet replacement and aftermarket demand — spurred by older generation aircraft retirees and higher utilization — are generating healthy aftermarket, parts, and MRO revenues.

Market Research Future’s suite of reports (including separate aftermarket-focused analyses) indicates continued growth in the aftermarket segment alongside OEM deliveries. Third, regional dynamics are shifting demand centers: North America remains the largest single regional market in 2024, but Asia-Pacific (led by China and India) is a principal growth engine for deliveries and total fleet expansion. 

Supply-side realities temper pure-demand optimism. Manufacturing bottlenecks, skilled labor shortages, and supply-chain constraints (notably for avionics, composites, and specialist casting/forging capacity) continue to limit how fast OEMs can translate orders into deliveries. The industry’s long lead times — often measured in years — mean that production cadence improvements are essential to meet MRFR’s forecasted growth. 

Get a Quote - Request a price quote for the report or specific research services.

A final, critical variable is competition and certification geopolitics. Beyond Boeing and Airbus, emerging OEMs (e.g., COMAC in China) aim to capture domestic and regional market share, creating potential shifts in supplier relationships and pricing dynamics. Recent industry analysis highlights how new entrants may reshape competitive sets, particularly for single-aisle volumes in Asia. 

For stakeholders — suppliers, investors, policymakers, and airline planners Civil aviation market — the takeaway is straightforward: structural demand is intact; execution risks remain; and regional strategy (especially in APAC) will be a decisive differentiator. MRFR’s valuation and segment breakdowns offer useful anchors for forecasting and scenario planning through 2035.